It's an old story, but it never gets old: Democrats just whooped Republicans in fundraising—again. This week on "The Downballot" podcast, we're running through some of the most eye-popping numbers Democrats hauled in during the first quarter of the year (Sherrod Brown! Jon Tester! Colin Allred!) and the comparatively weak performances we're seeing from Republicans almost across the board. The GOP hopes to make up the gap by relying on self-funders, but a campaign without a strong fundraising network can be dangerously hollow.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap the week's electoral action, starting with victories in a pair of special elections in Michigan that allowed Democrats to reclaim their majority in the state House, plus a noteworthy House runoff in Alabama that could lead to a Black Democrat representing Mobile for the first time since Reconstruction.
The Davids also explain why a surprise retirement from the Wisconsin Supreme Court means progressives need to be on guard against a top-two lockout in yet another critical battle for control of the court. And finally, there's the astonishing three-way House race in California that could soon turn into a humdrum two-way affair thanks to an unexpected recount.
Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts to make sure you never miss a show. New episodes every Thursday morning!
This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.
David Beard: Hello and welcome. I'm David Beard, contributing editor for Daily Kos Elections.
David Nir: And I'm David Nir, political director of Daily Kos. "The Downballot" is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council.
Beard: What are we covering on this week's show, Nir?
Nir: We have a lot to discuss. We have election results out of Michigan where Democrats just retook a majority in the state House, and Alabama, where a runoff was just held in a new district created pursuant to the Voting Rights Act. We also had a big retirement announcement on the Wisconsin Supreme Court and then there is the case of the strange three-way House election in California, where a mystery recount is underway.
Then on our deep dive, we are talking about first quarter fundraising numbers. New reports are in for all House and Senate candidates and as has been the case for many years now, Democrats just keep kicking ass. We are going to dive into some of the most interesting numbers. We have a lot to talk about, so let's get rolling.
Nir: Well, Beard, we are back to election season this week. We had some interesting results on Tuesday night. What have you got?
Beard: Yes. So up in Michigan, Democrats of course took a very narrow majority after the November 2022 elections, 56-54. But because two members won other elections for mayor positions last year, they of course resigned and the chamber has been tied 54- 54 ever since. Now, these special elections have been held and Democrats won both of these seats that are pretty blue-leaning, so that was expected, but now, Michigan Democrats have regained their majority. It's once again 56-54, once these two new members get sworn in.
In one of the specials, Westland city councilman Peter Herzberg defeated Republican Josh Powell 60-38. That was in the 25th district and there was a slight overperformance from Biden's numbers in 2020. According to Dave's Redistricting App, the district backed Joe Biden 59-40. So just a little bit of an overperformance there.
In the other district, Macomb County Commissioner Mai Xiong likewise beat Republican Ronald Singer 66-34. That was in the 13th district and that was again a slight overperformance of Biden's numbers. Biden won 64-35, again, according to Dave's Redistricting App. Xiong's win makes her the first Hmong American elected to the State House.
Nir: One thing to note about that district though is Michigan will have a somewhat revised state House map this year following a successful federal lawsuit that challenged the existing map, and there weren't very many changes, but the one district that really did see a substantial change was the 13th District that Xiong just won. Like you said, it went for Joe Biden by almost 30 points. Under the new version, it would only have favored Joe Biden 50 to 48. So that's just shot way to the top of Democrat's priority list in terms of districts they're going to have to defend in November.
Beard: Yeah, and the good news now obviously, is we have an incumbent who just ran a race, ran a good race, apparently, overperformed Biden's number, so hopefully, she can again overperform Biden's numbers in the fall and win by more than 50-48, but any win is a win. We'll take anything. Now, as a result of these two wins, as I mentioned, Democrats again have a majority in the State House. They also have a majority in the state Senate, and of course, Governor Whitmer is a Democrat, so that has given Democrats control of the Michigan legislative process, again, which is great news. They passed a ton of really good legislation last year and they're looking to do the same this year.
Leading that is the $80 billion state budget that Governor Whitmer is touting as a way to provide free preschool and community college across the state. And they're also looking to approve a voting rights package to improve access to the ballot box for people of color, voters with disabilities, and people who rely on a language other than English. So of course, this would all be great stuff to see them pass between now and the election in November.
Nir: And there's one other bill that the Michigan legislature could pass as well, that would be to add the state's electoral votes to the interstate compact that would allow America to finally elect the president according to the national popular vote, instead of by the electoral college. This is a topic that we discussed in depth on "The Downballot" in an episode you can find from last year, with our guest Christopher Pearson. Suffice it to say, if Michigan joins the interstate compact, then that would help go a long way toward making it a reality. Now, there are several more states that Democrats would need to flip in November in order to reach the target of 270 electoral votes.
I say Democrats because Republicans have almost always been opposed to this, not universally but pretty heavily. Though there was a good development on this front quite recently; Maine joined the compact just the other week. And that was particularly positive because a few years ago, the Maine legislature voted down the idea. This time they voted for it. The governor, Janet Mills, a Democrat, actually let it become law without her signature, but it doesn't matter either way. Maine's four electoral votes are part of the compact and Michigan's should be soon as well, we hope.
Beard: Yes, we'll definitely be keeping a close eye on the legislature for the rest of its term this year.
Nir: So now we also had runoffs in Alabama's new second district, which as Downballot listeners know, is the new predominantly Black congressional district in southern Alabama that was drawn by a court under the Voting Rights Act. On the Democratic side, former Justice Department official Shomari Figures, dominated state House minority leader Anthony Daniels by a 61-39 margin. He'll face Republican attorney Carolyn Dobson who won her own runoff, 58-42 over former state Senator Dick Brewbaker, who's self-funded heavily. Now, this district might be on the outer edge of competitiveness, since it would've supported Joe Biden by a 56-43 margin.
As we know, voting is so polarized along racial lines in the South. It's why this district was created in the first place. Black voters tend to almost exclusively vote for Democrats while White voters heavily support Republicans. So I'd be quite surprised if a Republican can win this one down ticket because I'd be quite surprised if Joe Biden didn't carry it.
Beard: We've been seeing lots of polling recently—as we've discussed at times—about the potential for Black voters to lower their Democratic support. And obviously, in theory, if that were to happen, we could see a seat like this become more competitive, but what tends to happen is in the end, that the results tend to hew very closely to historical figures and also the top of the ticket. So it would be pretty unlikely at this point to see a district that's this racially polarized, become competitive.
Nir: Yeah, so I consider Figures the strong favorite here for all those reasons you just mentioned, Beard. And if he does win, our Daily Kos Elections colleague Jeff Singer pointed out something very interesting. Actually, two interesting things. Figures would be the first black person to represent the city of Mobile in the House since Reconstruction. So we're now going back 150 years, and he would also be the first Democrat to represent Mobile since the early 1960s. Now, of course, back then, Alabama Democrats were racist, segregationist conservatives, and I don't know the leanings of the two Black Republicans who represented Mobile in the 1870s, Benjamin Turner and Jeremiah Haralson.
I think it's probably safe to say that if Figures wins, he would be the first ever liberal in our modern understanding to serve Mobile and the surrounding area in the house.
Beard: It's a credit to the Voting Rights Act and actually, some judges' willingness to uphold and enforce the Voting Rights Act, that this is happening and he's going to be able to represent that district.
Nir: So we had some surprising news in Wisconsin late last week when liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley announced that she would not seek a fourth 10-year term on the state Supreme Court. It was a surprise because just last year, right after Janet Protasiewicz won her historic race in a huge landslide, Bradley seemed really pumped up and she said she would run again. She said she "absolutely" would run again. That was her adverb. Late last week, she said, it's time to pass the torch and you can understand why. She's 73 years old now. She served on the court for 30 years and she'd be 85 by the time a fourth term would end.
Now, whether or not Bradley had run again, this was already going to be an extremely hot race because conservatives have been in a nonstop rage since losing their majority on the court last year. But now, that it's an open seat, everything will crank up a notch. And I want to emphasize to Downballot listeners and tell everyone you know, that this race is coming up next year, in 2025. There is no rest for the weary. We get done with the November 2024 elections, and boom, we are immediately into this one, another battle for control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
Beard: And we all know how important that is, but the thing that I want to focus on is the process here of how these elections happen, and it's a top-two primary. It's not a sort of conventional election where you might have primaries and then a Democrat and a Republican go to a general election. It's officially nonpartisan, so there are no labels on the ballot. So all of the candidates, even though everybody knows some of them are progressive and some of them are conservative, they'll all run on a single ballot together on February 18th and the top two vote-getters will advance to an April 1st general election. Of course, listeners know, we talk about it a lot, whenever you have a top-two primary, there is the possibility of one side or the other side getting locked out of the second round.
This would of course be a catastrophe for progressives. They finally retook the court after so long. So it's very critical that the establishment rally around a candidate who can unify support, who can advance to the second round and a general election. Now, three different liberal-leaning judges have already expressed interest. So not obviously great for a sign, but there's a good chance that when fundraising comes to it, that's often a big decider. One candidate will probably outpace in fundraising, and that tends to be the person who people consolidate around.
Now, on the conservative side, one person was already running before Bradley announced her retirement, and that's former Republican state Attorney General Brad Schimel. Of course, now, another conservative judge is also considering, so he may not have the conservative lane to himself.
Nir: Yeah, I don't think that we'll really wind up with three liberals and two conservatives. That's obviously the potential nightmare scenario that could allow two conservatives to slip through. The liberal establishment ... we can't just say Democrats here because these are officially nonpartisan races. So the liberal establishment in Wisconsin did a really good job in last year's race of avoiding this problem because there were two conservatives and two liberals running. So still a possibility for a top two lockout, but pretty much the entire establishment, including out-of-state groups such as Daily Kos, rallied around Janet Protasiewicz early on, and she dominated in the primary, as a result.
She got like 46%, and a second liberal candidate wound up in just single digits. Meanwhile, the two conservatives who were on the ballot were just bitterly, bitterly opposed to one another. There was just no way that conservatives and Republicans were going to unite behind either former Supreme Court Justice Dan Kelly or Judge Jennifer Dorow. As a result, you have just this six-week sprint between the primary and the general election, and the wounds between Kelly and Dorow did not heal. They did not have time to heal in that time period. So who knows, maybe we'll have another two-liberal and two-conservative race. At this time, conservatives will get locked out.
I mean, you can't rule it out. Even if something that grandiose doesn't happen though, Beard, I feel like odds are pretty high, if we see another extremely bitter and nasty fight on the conservative side, Schimel should be the obvious choice to lock it down. He's won statewide, but you've got this other conservative judge who after Schimel announced last fall, said she was considering and then, after Bradley announced her retirement said she was still considering. So obviously, she's not ready to get in line. We'll see what happens.
Beard: Yeah, if there's one thing Republicans love, it's having a really messy primary or however far-right the establishment candidate is, somebody further through the right pops up and calls the far-right establishment candidate a Democrat. So that's very possible to have happen here yet again.
Now, on another topic, we've got a pretty unprecedented situation over in California where one of the House elections—yes, one of the House elections that was way back in early March has still not been decided. Now, California may host its first-ever general election House race with three candidates instead of two candidates since it's adopted this top-two system, because the two second-place candidates tied.
They have the exact same number of votes after the vote was certified, which in California law, means that they would both advance to the general election along with the first-place finisher. There's now a surprise recount that could result in a more traditional two-candidate contest in November. So let me explain a little bit more. San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo took first place in this top-two primary in California's 16th district while Assemblyman Evan Low and Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian traded leads as small as a single vote over the ensuing month. Then, as I said, with the certification, they wound up exactly tied at 30,249 votes. The odds of that seem pretty slim, but it happened.
Now, both of the tied second-place candidates were prepared to advance to the general election, which would result in these three candidates going to this general that's normally only two, as neither one of them wanted to risk a recount that would result in the other candidate getting second place and them being knocked out of the race.
Nir: Yeah, and a recount would only have to shift one single vote after what, more than 100,000 cast in order to unbalance this unbelievably precarious three-way race. And I mean, I feel like just as a pure election nerd, this tie is so wild, you just kind of want to see it stick.
Beard: Yeah, I mean, what are the odds of this happening? I don't even know, but it's crazy that so often we think of recounts as something that is so unlikely to change the result of an election because people will ask for a recount when they're down 2,000 votes or something, and it's fairly unlikely unless it's a very large statewide election for that to change. Here, since it's tied, recounts, of course, will change one, two votes, 10 votes. That happens all the time. So there's a very good chance that a recount would result in one of the candidates actually getting second place and the other one being knocked out.
So we thought we were all set to go ahead, and then at the last minute, two voters with connection to Liccardo, the first-place candidate requested a recount. Now, the request was led by Jonathan Padilla who once served on Sam Liccardo's campaign for mayor. This is not the official Sam Liccardo campaign requesting one, but it's somebody who's pretty closely connected to that guy who's requesting one.
Now, Padilla has to pay for the recount every day ahead of it happening or the recount doesn't happen, but he has been doing it, so it started; he's provided the money. It's coming from a newly formed super PAC called Count the Vote, and that super PAC, the checks are signed by James Sutton, who also has connections to Padilla as his attorney.
So clearly, this is all pretty coordinated. I think it's safe to say that the Liccardo campaign decided that it was in their best interest for a recount to happen and hopefully result in one of the two candidates getting second place to go to a top-two rather than a three-way general, whether they did polling or why they think that. That seems to be what all of this is implying that they want a second-place candidate to go up against one-on-one.
Nir: Yeah, there have been reports of polling taking place, and I'm sure if you're Sam Liccardo, you've had plenty of time since the primary, which is back on March 5, to poll whether you do better against Simitian and Low or one or the other. And it really does seem evident that he thinks that he is best off in a two-way race. One thing that's emphasized here is that California does not pay for recounts. The state does not have an automatic recount law. So this guy, Padilla has to show up with a check, every day. And if he doesn't show up with a check every day until the recount is complete, then we just go back to the previously certified results.
Of course, we don't know where this money is coming from. It's coming from some super PAC. We can guess. Eventually, we'll probably find out or get closer to the answer, but it's a really, really weird situation. Evan Low has been particularly about the whole thing, attacking the dark money effort behind the recount. I totally get it. I also think ... come on, have an automatic recount law. This is really silly. I think that a lot of these automatic recount laws specify too wide of a margin. We think of 1% as a close race, it is, but a 1% race is virtually never going to get overturned in a recount, but specify something smaller under state law, a quarter of a percent, something like that.
I hope that California fixes the situation because demanding that the runner-up pay for a super-expensive recount that could cost six figures, well into the six figures, seems unjust to me.
Beard: Yeah, and some states have a system where at a certain margin, you can request and pay for one, and then, at a smaller margin, it happens automatically, and the state pays for it. It seems like there are better systems for sure than California, and they could look to some other states that have a better way of doing things.
Nir: Well, I am still rooting for a tie. I mean, I know it was obviously, incredibly implausible that we had a tie the first time, but hell man, I'm rolling the dice on that or buying the lottery ticket.
Beard: Yeah, I mean if we can do it once, we can do it again, right? Isn't that how gambling works?
Nir: Hell yeah. Well, that does it for our weekly hits. Coming up after the break, we are going to be discussing new first-quarter fundraising numbers, all candidates running for federal office had to file reports with the FEC this week. And that gives us great insight into the races for House and Senate. There is a lot to discuss, so please stay with us.
Nir: So as I just mentioned, we now have first quarter fundraising reports for House and Senate candidates in hand. And Beard, it's really amazing, that we are now six years into seeing almost unbroken dominance by Democrats on the fundraising scene, ever since Donald Trump won office in 2016. Starting in 2017, Democratic fundraising, especially grassroots fundraising, small-dollar fundraising, and email fundraising surged into absolute overdrive.
And there doesn't seem to have been a let-up. These new fundraising reports from top to bottom, almost invariably, Democrats are just crushing Republicans.
Beard: Yeah, and I came of age in political awareness during the Bush administration when Democrats were often struggling to keep up with Republican incumbent fundraising with dark money that was very pervasive and it's crazy to compare then to now, and just the eye-popping numbers, even when you account for inflation obviously, from the past 20 years.
The amount of money Democrats are raising is just wild to think about. So we've broken up the competitive Senate races into a few categories to help go through it. And we're going to start with Democratic open seats. There are a couple of those Arizona Senate of course, where Kyrsten Sinema actually was an independent, so I guess it's technically an independent open seat, but let's not be too pedantic.
And then Michigan, where Debbie Stabenow is retiring. Both of these have good numbers for Democrats. You're going to hear us say that a lot. In the Arizona Senate seat, the presumptive nominee, Ruben Gallego doubled up Kari Lake's fundraising. He raised $7.4 million to Lake's, just $3.4 million. And honestly, Lake's $3.4 million is not bad compared to some of the other Republicans that we're going to talk about. Meanwhile, in Michigan, Elissa Slotkin raised $4.35 million, compared to the likely Republican nominee, Mike Rogers, who raised just over $1 million. Now, Rogers has a couple of primary opponents who are former congressmen, so you think that might be a real competitive primary for him.
The two candidates, Justin Amash and Peter Meijer, neither of them raised substantial amounts of money and really in Meijer's case, I'm like, "What are you doing, dude? Why are you running for Senate if you're not even going to try seemingly with his fundraising?"
Nir: Yeah, I mean Amash and Meijer's numbers are both terrible. Meijer raised like $200,000. That's shitty these days for a House candidate and he's not running for the House anymore. Maybe he forgot, but even if he were, that would be totally, totally feeble. Look, you can't get too cocky. Obviously, we know that money is not everything, but it's pretty damn important. And money breeds money and success breeds success. Someone like Slotkin in Michigan and Arizona, both of these states are places that have very late primaries in August. So the fundraising is going to crank up even more, even though Slotkin is almost certainly going to be the nominee and Gallego almost certainly going to be the nominee. Fundraising is going to go into overdrive after those primaries.
Beard: Yeah, so you obviously feel like you're in good shape for both of these Democratic candidates. And of course, in a presidential year, you've always got the top of the ticket to be thinking about, and we know that in presidential years, the lower down doesn't sway too far from the top of the ticket, but if you want to be in a good position, there's not much more Gallego or Slotkin could be doing at this point. Now, we want to move on to Democratic incumbents. Now, there's a number of those in competitive seats, and we're going to start with a couple in Republican states who are obviously facing some very, very tough re-elections. That's Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio.
And boy, did they knock the socks off their fundraising this quarter. Now, Tester raised nearly $8 million, which you think about, for a state the size of Montana, is just a wild amount of money. While Sherrod Brown raised nearly $12 million, which is a crazy amount of money under any circumstances for a Senate candidate in the first quarter.
Nir: Yeah, that was the largest fundraising haul by any Senate candidate anywhere in the country in the first quarter of 2024. Absolutely, off-the-wall numbers.
Beard: Yeah. Yeah, and if anybody can get through Ohio, it's Sherrod Brown with 12 million dollars. That's the path.
Nir: Hell yeah.
Beard: Meanwhile, their opponents neither raised not terrible, but not particularly impressive either, numbers. Tim Sheehy raised just over $2 million—that's the likely Republican candidate in Montana—and Bernie Moreno, the Republican candidate in Ohio raised just over $2 million. He also self-funded $1.5 million. You'll see that a lot with Senate candidates. For Republicans, they like to top up their fundraising sometimes in very large amounts as we'll get to later. So Moreno put in $1.5 million. I wouldn't be surprised if he put in more at some point. Sheehy put in $500,000, so that's a way for them to keep up a little bit, but it's still hard to keep up with Tester and Brown.
Nir: Yeah, the story is going to keep sounding very, very similar as we go through all of these. Our next batch are Democratic incumbents who are seeking reelection in swing states that Joe Biden narrowly won: Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And they're also all doing extremely well. In Nevada, another very small state, Democrat Jacky Rosen raised almost $5 million. That was more than double her leading Republican opponent, Sam Brown, who raised a little over $2 million. He is the establishment favorite. He definitely is the guy that the NRSC wants in the race, but he has a self-funding primary opponent.
This guy Jeffrey Gunter self-funded like $3 million. Gunter is kind of a weird case. He claimed he was going to spend $3 million on the airwaves, on ads ahead of the primary, and he hasn't yet. There was all this reporting based on his claims that he was putting $3.3 million on the airwaves and then, a week later he had only actually reserved an eighth of that. I'd be pretty surprised if Brown doesn't make it through the primary, but he's going to have to spend; he's going to have to spend. So that's another thing to emphasize here that Rosen obviously has no primary to even think about.
So she is going to have a ton of money banked while Sam Brown is going to come out of his primary probably spending down close to zero.
Beard: Yeah, and can I just say a weirdo in the Republican primary, I'm shocked. What are the odds that a weirdo would be attracted to running in the Senate Republican primary in Nevada?
Nir: So in Pennsylvania, Bob Casey, a Democratic senator there, raised about $5.5 million. He faces an opponent who could definitely do a lot of self-funding. Dave McCormick actually raised $4 million. I think this might be one of the closest we saw from actual fundraising from donors. McCormick also self-funded almost a million, can definitely throw down a lot more, but still a strong start for Casey, though. I think McCormick is probably ... well, I don't know, maybe their best recruit in a class with a lot of dodgy recruits. And then, there is Wisconsin. Tammy Baldwin raised $5 million. Again, a very big sum for a pretty mid-sized state. Her opponent, Eric Hovde, he raised $1 million, but he threw down a ton of money, $8 million.
Obviously, he's thinking that this is how he achieves parity with Tammy Baldwin. The thing is, as we've talked about from time to time in the past, if self-funding were such an obvious answer, many more self-funders would win and they don't. And I think there are a lot of reasons for that. The problem is that when you rely entirely on your own checkbook, you are failing to create the kind of network of super hardcore believers who will go and tell their friends and family about you, who will knock on doors for you, who will make phone calls for you, who will encourage other people to donate to you. When you have to actually raise money, you are building up a network to support your campaign.
You're not just taking in money, and I think that's what Republicans misunderstand. They think that just money is this purely fungible thing, but it actually matters where it comes from in campaigns.
Beard: Yeah, and I actually think it's good practice for campaigns, as frustrating as it can be. And I've been on campaigns that need to raise money and no one really likes it, by and large. I guess some people do. I don't like it, to be clear. Some people are in the fundraising world and I'm sure they love it, but I never enjoyed it. The point is that when you have to fundraise, you have to learn how to appeal to people and how to inspire people. Now obviously, you're doing it to a select group of people who donate to political campaigns, but that practice can also serve you when you're trying to persuade and inspire regular voters.
And the more that you do that on your campaign, the better that you're going to be at it and the more that you understand the goal of running a campaign. Whereas when you cut yourself an $8 million check and then, you're just, like, see you in September for the first TV ads—that doesn't really give you that same practice at persuading and inspiring people.
Now, those are the Democratic-held seats, but we do have a couple of Republican-held seats worth talking about. Neither of them is at the absolute top of competitiveness here, but they're definitely worth keeping an eye on. And we've got some good candidates in both of them for Democrats.
In Florida, we've got Debbie Mucarsel-Powell; she out-raised Rick Scott. Actually, Scott of course, is the incumbent. She raised about $3.5 million. He only raised $2 million. She's only $1 million dollars behind in their cash on hand. Now, of course, Rick Scott is super-rich. He can self-fund like we talked about. I would not expect Scott to be hurting for money at any stage, but I think it is a good sign that Powell is showing that she can raise a decent number for a state as big as Florida and can show some real competitiveness in a state that large.
Nir: Yeah, and again, this is another state with a very late primary. Mucarsel-Powell does have some primary competition. I'd be pretty surprised if she didn't win the nomination handily. Again, I think that if it's looking like Florida could be in play once or after the primary, I think that the fundraising could really open up for her, especially because progressives hate Rick Scott and love to hate Rick Scott. Mucarsel-Powell could definitely build up a very big national fundraising profile as a result. Also, there is the $100 million question, is Joe Biden going to compete in Florida? There've been some small hints that he might actually do that.
I don't know. We'll have to see. If he does though then, man, I think that Rick Scott could definitely be beaten.
Beard: Yeah, my feeling is that the campaign wants to compete in Florida, whether they ultimately will—talking about the Biden campaign, of course—remains to be seen. It's so expensive to do so, but that could certainly put Mucarsel-Powell in good shape to really make this race competitive. And speaking of Republicans that Democrats love to hate, we have one more race, right?
Nir: Yes, we do. Ted Cruz is still working his same magic for the Democrats. Congressman Colin Allred pulled in an astonishing fundraising quarter, with more than $9 million raised. If it weren't for Sherrod Brown just going hog wild, that would've been the biggest haul this quarter. Allred has more cash on hand than Ted Cruz, but here's the amazing thing. He is outstripping Beto O'Rourke who set all kinds of berserk fundraising records in his Senate campaign in 2018. In the first quarter of that year, by the way, O'Rourke brought in $6.7 million. Now, with inflation that would be $8.3 million today. So Allred is still beating even that mark, but here's something else to bear in mind.
That quarter in 2018, O'Rourke was the top Senate fundraiser. Let's put things in perspective. In the first quarter of 2018, Sherrod Brown raised $3 million. This time he's done four times as much, four times as much, four times as much. Jon Tester, $2 million dollars. Again, four times as much. So it's not just that Allred is beating O'Rourke and that he's beating Cruz, it's that everyone is beating everyone by big ass margins.
Beard: Yeah, the numbers are really wild on the Democratic side, and we see that not just in the Senate, but we see that in a lot of House races as well. And we want to talk about some of the key house races that are particularly competitive. Obviously, there are too many competitive House races for us to go through all of them like we did the Senate, but we want to flag some key trends and some key issues that we've seen, going on through these first-quarter reports.
Nir: One thing that's worth emphasizing. We talk about, so-and-so out-raising so-and-so. That's always a great feather to have in your cap, but what really matters is do you have enough money to get your message out. Because I think we all understand that there have to be diminishing returns. And we have seen that in some races where you can keep spending and spending more and more and dump more money onto TV ads and you really can't move the needle much further. So when you're talking about challengers as opposed to incumbents, yeah, it's awesome to out-raise an incumbent, but what really matters is having enough money to run a credible campaign. And we are seeing that up and down the line for Democrats.
And they're also out-raising a lot of incumbents, but I don't think anyone is going to lose a race… any Democrat, to be clear, isn't going to lose a race in 2024 because they didn't have enough money.
Beard: Now, everyone who followed the 2022 midterm elections, knows that two of the worst states for Democrats and the two states that probably led to Democrats losing the house were California and New York. And so there are a lot of Republican incumbents running in those states that Democrats need to challenge and take out. And fortunately, we've been seeing some really great numbers in both of those states that are showing that Democrats have gotten some challengers who can really raise some money and who are really going to make these Republican incumbents sweat. Now, in California, there are a number of competitive seats, but I want to highlight four in particular.
California's 13th district is where Democrat Adam Gray is on a rematch against freshman Republican John Duarte. California's 22nd district is where Rudy Salas, the Democrat, is in a rematch against Republican incumbent David Valadao. California's 27th district, where first-time Democratic candidate George Whitesides is running against Republican Mike Garci. And then, California's 41st district, where once again, Will Rollins, the Democrat, is in for a rematch against Republican incumbent Ken Calvert. Now, in these four very competitive California seats, the Democratic challenger out-raised the Republican incumbent in every single one of them. Sometimes by impressive margins. We're talking not like out-raised them by $100,000. We're talking out-raised them by $700,000.
Out-raised them by a million dollars almost in Rollins's case in California 41. So those are some incredibly good numbers for those four seats in California as Democrats look to take out these Republican incumbents.
Nir: Yeah, and one thing I want to emphasize, we talk a lot about the crossover districts—that is the congressional districts that Joe Biden carried—but that Republicans won and there are 18 of them, and that's definitely the central battleground for the house. There are a number of additional districts on both sides that either Biden won narrowly or Trump won narrowly that are still going to be competitive. And one of those is the one you were just extolling Beard, California 41. This is a very narrowly Trump district, so it doesn't show up on that list of the 18 Biden R seats, but Will Rollins raising almost $2 million is just completely bonkers. Think about it. That's how much Jon Tester raised for a senate campaign, six years ago.
And now look, Ken Calvert raised a million bucks, which would be a ton of money. I mean, when you were talking about during the Bush years, no one raised sums like that back then.
Beard: Yeah.
Nir: He's still getting out-raised two to one. That's really, really wild.
Beard: Yeah, and folks remember, this was a seat that got redistricted somewhat. He's a longtime Republican incumbent. He for a long time had a pretty safe seat. He now has Palm Springs in southern California in his district, which is a real Democratic base that Rollins of course, ran with in 2022, came up narrowly short and is coming back for another bite at the apple with a ton of money that he's been raising
Nir: That buys a lot of apples.
Beard: Yeah, yeah. As I mentioned, the other state where Democrats have a lot of Republican incumbents to go after is New York. And we've seen a similar situation in some of those districts where democrats have recruited some strong challengers and are out-raising the Republican incumbents. And there's three seats I want to highlight. That's New York's 4th district where Laura Gillen is in for a rematch against Anthony D'Esposito, the Republican freshman incumbent. New York's 17th district, where former Representative Mondaire Jones, the Democrat, is seeking a comeback against Republican freshman Mike Lawler.
And then, in New York's 19th district, where Democrat Josh Riley is again in for a rematch against Republican freshman Marc Molinaro. Now a particular note in the 4th district, D'Esposito's fundraising for an incumbent was terrible.
Nir: When we were prepping for this episode, Beard, of running down this list of numbers, I'm like, "Wait, hold on. Is that a typo?" D'Esposito raised $250,000, and that would've only ... even 20 years ago that would've been so-so. That would've been decent. Now, going by the 2020 presidential vote, this is the bluest competitive seat held by a Republican in the nation. Though maybe it's not competitive. I mean these are numbers ... maybe D'Esposito has given up. There's just no real way to explain this. This is a seat on Long Island that Democrats had held until 2022. There's good reason to think it would flip back, but I don't think it's automatic.
Beard: Yeah, and this is the New York City media market. This is not a cheap place to run a congressional campaign. So this is really where you need to be raising the big bucks, so it's very confusing as to why his quarter was so poor.
Nir: And you have to wonder what is going to happen with this race in the fall. Now, maybe he'll kick it into gear. Sometimes you see this happen, and someone has a crappy quarter and then, they raise a million bucks the next quarter. There is still a lot of game left to play.
If he is still dragging his ass into September, then you have a situation where the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund have to decide whether or not they're going to triage an incumbent who obviously isn't pulling his weight, or whether they're going to insist on sticking with him to the bitter end.
And we've actually seen fights in the past between the NRCC and CLF about situations like this. Usually, it's the NRCC, sticking with these completely hopeless dead-end candidates. So I don't know, I'm rooting for more of that this year.
Beard: Yeah, and of course, campaign committees are very reluctant to abandon incumbents. They are first and foremost incumbent protection committees. Their point is to protect the members elected and then elect new ones. So it's hard for them to tell someone who is part of the group to be like, "Sorry, you're out. It's not going to happen. Good luck to you." We have seen it happen, and this is certainly a district, I could imagine it happening in September, October, and November of this year.
And of course, there are hundreds of races outside of California and New York, a number of them very competitive as well. We just want to highlight a few of those before we sign off.
In Arizona's 6th district, this was a race that Democrats, to their chagrin, did not invest in very much in 2022, and it ended up being very, very close. And I think there's a good chance in retrospect that had they invested, this would be a Democratic seat today. And I think that is not going to happen again, for sure. Kirsten Engel is running again as the Democrat. She raised over a million dollars in this quarter. Juan Ciscomani, who's the Republican freshman, the incumbent, only raised a bit over $600,000. Now, she's down, of course, in cash-on-hand, which often happens with challengers. But out-raising him by $500,000 is a great sign and puts her in a really good position to take back this really, really competitive seat.
Nir: Yeah, I think it's amazing that she out-raised them almost two to one. And in particular, Ciscomani has been treated by Republicans as this rising star. He's like ... you can't call him moderate, but he's not obviously insane. He's Latino. He's the kind of guy that they have been building up as their future. So it would be extra awesome to take him out, but I also have to note, Beard, that he faces a primary. Engel is almost certainly going to be the Democratic nominee here. Ciscomani, of course, faces a primary from some hard-right nutbags and I don't think he's going to lose, but in 2022, the CLF had to spend a lot of money to make sure that he did win that primary back when this was an open seat.
So maybe someone's going to have to come to his rescue again. I mean, we've seen other incumbents sort of similarly styled as non-crazies who really struggle in these primaries. So hell, maybe it'll be an open seat.
Beard: Yeah, and can I just say I love the idea that the new Republican tagline is "not obviously insane." Just put that on all the posters for these candidates, and that's what they'll go with, to prove to the public that they should vote for them. "Hey, I'm Joe Schmoe, and I'm not obviously insane." So what more can you expect from a Republican?
Nir: Yeah, and somehow even that tagline is still not working out for them.
Beard: We've had a lot of good news in terms of the democratic fundraising front, but they can't all be good news. Down in south Texas, Vicente Gonzalez is a Democratic incumbent. He raised just under $500,000, which isn't terrible—it would've been good years ago—but as we've seen with other raises, is just sort of okay. Meanwhile, his Republican opponent who is again, coming back from 2022, Mayra Flores raised a million dollars. More importantly, he is down to Flores in cash on hand by over a million dollars, which is really not a good sign for an incumbent congressman.
Nir: Yeah, Flores, you may recall, was briefly a member of Congress herself last year, after winning a special election. So this was a strange incumbent versus incumbent matchup that Gonzalez actually won handily, but he really can't afford to sleepwalk through this race. It's obvious that Flores has developed a pretty strong fundraising network. So yeah, time to step it up.
Beard: Yeah, so that's certainly a race that we'll be keeping an eye on, but in much better news, we'll end with a great fundraising quarter from Mary Peltola, the incumbent Democratic representative from Alaska. She raised $1.7 million, which is a great result for a state like Alaska. And more importantly, her Republican opponent raised bupkis. She's got two Republican opponents who are most prominent: Nancy Dahlstrom, the incumbent Lieutenant Governor, and Nick Begich III, who of course, ran in that race in 2022. They both raised just over $200,000, which is a lot less than $1.7 million.
Nir: Yeah, it's not just an astonishing sum, but as you were saying, Beard, it's an astonishing sum for Alaska. Alaska is a very challenging state to campaign in, in person, obviously. It's also an incredibly cheap state to advertise in. There won't be any presidential races at the top of the ticket. There isn't even a Senate race or a governor's race. So this is the top-of-the-ticket race in Alaska.
Beard: And you know what? My goal for Mary Peltola, 50% on the first ballot in November. We don't need the runoff for her. She's going to get 50% before you even go get anybody else's votes in the ranked-choice voting system.
Nir: I love it. Beard, we are manifesting 50% plus one for Mary Peltola, no runoff. Love it.
Beard: That's all from us this week. "The Downballot" comes out every Thursday, everywhere you listen to podcasts. You can reach out to us by emailing thedownballot@dailykos.com. If you haven't already, please subscribe to "The Downballot" and leave us a five-star rating and review. Thanks to our editor, Drew Roderick, and we'll be back next week with a new episode.