It's 7 AM in Israel, 6 AM where I'm at, and I tried to compile a Google Sheet to compare the results of the Israeli elections today with those of 2013.
It's based on:
(a) The Israeli Election Committee's data on numbers of votes and percentages, with almost all the votes counted;
(b) The latest update on the Haaretz live blog about the projected numbers of seats.
I was going to do a write-up on the Israeli election open thread but it's become too long for that, so here it is as separate diary:
The comparison with the last elections would seem to give a bit more perspective. Compared to what the polls were showing last week, of course, the results are hugely disappointing, and they don't bode well for the immediate future of Israel and the occupied territories. Compared to the results of the 2013 elections, however, not all that much has changed.
In terms of seats, the left made some modest gains. The Arab parties gain 3, the Zionist List parties gain 3, and Meretz gets squeezed in between, losing 2. Net gain: 4.
The right suffered some losses overall, despite Netanyahu's impressive performance: Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu together pool 5 more seats than when they ran a joint list last time, but Jewish Home loses 4 and the religious/haredim parties lose 5. Net loss: 4.
In the center, Yesh Atid loses 8 seats, and Kadima's 2 seats also disappear, but Kulanu wins 10.
So that would, in total, make for a slight shift to the left. Except that my impression is that Kulanu is a bit to the right of where Yesh Atid and Kadima were, so maybe it's more of a wash.
(I'm purely talking about the electoral landscape, of course. The government that will appear from all of this might well be to the right of the previous one, but that's a separate discussion.)
In terms of percentages, the stability is even greater - once you add in all the smaller parties that don't show up in most lists because they didn't make the electoral threshold.
The Arab parties go from 9.2% to 11.0%.
The left-wing parties, one you add in Eretz Hadasha (2013) and the pro-marijuana Green Leaf party (2013+2015), go from 22.8% to 23.6%.
The centrist parties, once you add the 2013 results for Kadima and Am Shalem (which splintered from Shas but sounds, per Wikipedia, like it was more a mixed/moderate than a haredim party), go from 17.6% to 16.2%.
The religious/haredim parties (Shas, UTJ and the very right-wing Shas splinter Yachad) go from 13.9% to ... 13.9%.
Finally, the right-wing nationalist parties, once you include the far-right Otzma LeYisrael for 2013, go from 34.2% to 34.9%.[1]
The very smallest parties go from 2.2% to 0.4%.
That's ... a surprising amount of stability, even stagnation. So much for all the sound and fury of the campaign and news coverage!
Finally, in terms of votes, the balance was towards making gains, since there were some 272 thousand more votes this time, thanks to a mix of slightly rising turnout and an increase in the number of eligible voters. But among the parties that ran in both elections, Yesh Atid, Shas, Jewish Home, Meretz and Green Leaf lost votes, and mostly the first three.
[1]There's a slight wrinkle here in that Otzma LeYisrael merged into Yachad and crossed 'camps' in that sense - I suppose you could fit Yachad into either of the last two 'camps'.