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8:41 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Nashville Mayor: Several wealthy candidates are seeking this open seat, and it was only a matter of time before one of them announced a big ad buy. Attorney Charles Robert Bone has reserved $923,000 in airtime from now until the August 6 non-partisan primary, and is out with his first spot. This being Nashville, it unsurprisingly features the narrators singing their argument that Bone will be a mayor for the whole city. Charter school founder Jeremy Kane is also on the air, though his $25,000 buy is far more modest. Kane emphasizes education, before transitioning into other issues.
8:53 AM PT: IL-Sen: Rep. Bill Foster is one of the Illinois House members who always get Great Mentioned in relation to the Democratic nomination to go against Mark Kirk in 2016, but he actually hadn't done anything more than not rule the race out in December. Until now ... Foster issued a statement on Tuesday saying that he's "seriously considering" the race, as well as tearing into Kirk's decision to sign on to the Tom Cotton letter to Iran.
As for Kirk, he's taking the race seriously, kicking his fundraising operations into high gear already. (Foster is one of the wealthiest members of Congress and could certainly self-fund, but this race is a high-enough priority that any top-tier Dem nominee will receive adequate funding.) Kirk raised $200,000 in one night on Monday, at an event with new Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner in attendance. The show of force, however, may be just as oriented toward warding off potential primary challengers as well as Democratic opponents.
9:06 AM PT: IL-10: Ex-Rep. Brad Schneider seems to have settled on a third-straight matchup against Rep. Bob Dold, stating last week that he was "all but decided" on a rematch. Assuming he runs, though, he'll have some company in the Democratic primary: Nancy Rotering, the mayor since 2011 of Highland Park (popu. 30k), said on Wednesday that she'll be "definitely running." The primary could get expensive, but given the district's 58 Obama-41 Romney configuration, it's a prime opportunity in a presidential election year for whoever emerges from the primary.
While the DCCC seems to prefer Schneider, Rotering has some major backers within the local Dem establishment: she has the support of former Chicago inspector general (and 2010 IL-Sen candidate) David Hoffman, and two names familiar from previous losing efforts in IL-10: Dan Seals, and ex-state Rep. Julie Hamos. However, she'll still have an uphill effort in the primary, given Schneider's name recognition advantage; Schneider's camp shared an internal poll from Normington, Petts, and Associates from last week that gives Schneider a 56-12 edge over Rotering in a primary. Schneider has 88 percent name ID while Rotering has 25 percent.
10:01 AM PT (David Nir): FL-18: All signs are pointing to a Senate bid for Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, and one unconfirmed report even says he'll launch his campaign next week, so the Great Mentioner is already hard at work when it comes to replacements. Interest in this swingy coastal seat is sure to be high on both sides: On paper, the 18th District leans to the right (it went for Romney 51-48), but factor in a presidential race plus the possibility of Murphy at the top of the ticket and Democrats will be keen, too.
For the GOP, some possibilities include state Reps. Gayle Harrell and Pat Rooney, Jr. (the brother of FL-17 Rep. Tom Rooney); Stephen Leighton, a former district director for Tom Rooney; Martin County School Board member Rebecca Negron (the wife of state Sen. Joe Negron); Martin County Commissioner Doug Smith; St. Lucie County Commissioner Tod Mowery; businessman Gary Uber; and former state Rep. Carl Domino, the hapless 2014 nominee. Uber and Mowery sound the most likely in the early going; Martin County Sheriff William Snyder, meanwhile, just took a pass.
The Democratic bench is smaller but by no means barren. Among the top options are Palm Beach County Commissioner Melissa McKinlay, state Sen. Jeff Clemens, and state Rep. Dave Kerner, who says he has plans to meet with the DCCC. An open seat would be tough for Democrats to hold, but it's by no means impossible.
10:06 AM PT (David Nir): FL-18: One Democrat has also said no, Palm Beach County State Attorney Dave Aronberg.
10:24 AM PT: AZ-Sen: Here's an illustration of how a state's lack of primary election runoffs can save the bacon of an incumbent who's loathed by his party's base. In a straight-up one-on-one primary challenge, John McCain runs the risk of getting edged out by someone running a tea-flavored challenge from his right. Throw more than one challenger into the mix, though, and the anti-establishment vote just gets split multiple ways, letting him win easily.
And that's potentially what's happening in the Republican primary in Arizona, where state Sen. Kelli Ward has been making a push to raise her profile ahead of a possible run against McCain, reaching out to the right-o-sphere, pushing a flurry of red-meat legislation, and even having her supporters start a Super PAC on her behalf. That clown-car problem seems to be making it less likely that a stronger challenger, Rep. Matt Salmon, though, would follow through with his interest in also running against McCain. Salmon would have the name rec, and support from DC anti-establishment groups like the Club for Growth, to have at least a plausible shot against McCain in a mano-a-mano fight. Salmon represents a Mesa-area seat and may be dimly remembered statewide from losing the 2002 gubernatorial race, while Ward isn't well-known outside of smallish Lake Havasu City (which is still part of the Phoenix media market, but is on the state's periphery).
10:37 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MD-Sen: Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake has been publicly mulling a campaign for the Democratic nomination for this open seat. However, BuzzFeed's Darren Sands reports that while Rawlings-Blake hasn't closed the door on this contest, she's looking a lot less interested than she was even a few days ago. According to unnamed sources close to the mayor, she's very unlikely to run unless she has the financial commitments she thinks she'll need, or a big-named endorsement (she seems to have former Gov. Martin O'Malley in mind). Rawlings-Blake is up for re-election as mayor in 2016 and she may decide to keep her post and then seek the governorship in 2018 rather than risk her current job.
If Rawlings-Blake stays out, that could be good news for some of her would-be primary foes. Rep. Elijah Cummings has been talking about jumping in, and he'd rather not compete with another African American from Baltimore in what could be a crowded primary. Rep. Donna Edwards is already running and EMILY's list is reportedly talking to both her and Rawlings-Blake. EMILY's endorsement would bring some useful outside spending with it, and Edwards would benefit if she earned their backing. However, EMILY seems to prefer Rawlings-Blake to Edwards, and they've still trying to recruit her.
10:41 AM PT: FL-Sen: The Democratic field in the Florida Senate race (either against Marco Rubio, or for an open seat, if he goes all-in on a presidential bid) got even clearer on Wednesday, with Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz confirming that she'll run for re-election to her House seat, rather than rolling the dice on a promotion. She floated a trial balloon in February, but that quickly got swallowed up by a wave of terrible press after big donor John Morgan leaked embarrassing e-mails offering to flip-flop on medical marijuana in exchange for his support. The DWS boomlet seemed to die down after that, but she made it official on Wednesday.
With ex-Gov. Charlie Crist also taking a pass on the Senate race this week, that leaves Rep. Patrick Murphy in pole position for the Democratic Party nomination. Rep. Alan Grayson has also expressed interest in the Senate primary, in fact reiterating on Wednesday that he'd be more likely to run if Wasserman Schultz weren't running ... but with an ongoing bigamy trial against his estranged wife, his mind may be elsewhere for the time being.
11:20 AM PT: IL-18: One of the fastest (and funniest) implosions in the U.S. House in recent years is complete. It started only in early February, with an innocent-enough story in the Washington Post about how Republican Rep. Aaron Schock — then a young, rising-star politician from rural Illinois — had Downton Abbey-inspired office décor. Schock's strange evasiveness about that story just led to more stories about how he paid for the remodel, though, and things just started unraveling for Schock from there as a pattern of gratuitous and often improperly-reported expenses came to light.
Today, Schock is on his way to being a historical footnote instead of, say, a future Illinois Governor, as he announced his resignation.
“Today, I am announcing my resignation as a Member of the United States House of Representatives effective March 31,” Schock said in a statement....
“But the constant questions over the last six weeks have proven a great distraction that has made it too difficult for me to serve the people of the 18th District with the high standards that they deserve and which I have set for myself. I have always sought to do what’s best for my constituents and I thank them for the opportunity to serve..."
On Monday, the House Office of Congressional Ethics began contacting Schock's associates in an initial investigation. In conjunction with Schock's prior answer from last week about whether he broke the law with any of his activities — "I certainly hope not..." though he added the disclaimer that he's "not an attorney" — it sounds like he decided things were only to get worse from here on out.
12:03 PM PT: IL-Sen: Mark Kirk was quick to respond to Foster's statement of interest, responding with the same bluff bravado (or hubris?) that he did earlier when Rep. Tammy Duckworth also expressed her interest.
"I very much look forward to a Foster candidacy," Kirk told reporters when asked by The Washington Post about Foster's statement earlier in the day saying that he was "seriously considering" challenging Kirk. "I would welcome him coming in because I know I would beat him soundly."
12:23 PM PT: IL-18: Politico has added some detail to the initial story where they broke the Schock resignation. Their further inquiries about mileage reimbursement — a story that first emerged on Tuesday — revealed some huge discrepancies in his mileage records. Schock billed the federal government for 170,000 miles logged in his Chevy Tahoe, but when he sold the vehicle in July 2014, the odometer only read 80,000 miles, meaning he overbilled by 90,000 miles (worth tens of thousands of dollars to him).
We also have some early details on the special election to replace Schock. Gov. Bruce Rauner must call for an election within 5 days of Schock's resignation (set for March 31), and the election must occur within 115 days of that (so, before the end of July). The potential Republican successor getting the most mention is a familiar name: state Sen. Darin LaHood. He's the son of moderate ex-Rep. Ray LaHood, who served more than a decade in IL-18 before becoming Barack Obama's Transportation Secretary. (Though it's possible his dad's apostasy may come back to haunt the younger LaHood in a primary against a more conservative opponent.)
1:24 PM PT: NC-03: Walter Jones Jr. will have to fight the Law and win if he wants to stick around in the House for another term. 33-year-old Phil Law, a businessman and Marine combat veteran from the Iraq war, announced that he'll run against Jones in the 2016 Republican primary.
Jones narrowly (51-45) won a victory in the 2014 GOP primary against former George W. Bush aide Taylor Griffin, so the iconoclastic Jones is at least somewhat vulnerable against well-funded opponents; it remains to be seen, however, whether Law has the same access to money (he's characterized as being "active in Onslow County politics," though that could mean anything). Jones is a rather slippery target for an establishment challenge, though, since — as someone partially aligned with the Paulist wing but also one of the few pro-minimum wage, pro-SCHIP GOPers — he's simultaneously to the left and to the right of the median GOPer.
1:40 PM PT: Campaign finance: Law professor Larry Lessig made some waves in the 2014 election with his "Super PAC to end Super PACs," Mayday PAC, and he outstripped fundraising expectations. The PAC designed to elect candidates who would support campaign finance reforms, though, didn't pan out where it actually matters, though: the business of getting any of its preferred candidates to win their races. On Monday, Lessig announced that Mayday wouldn't be back, at least in the form of spending money directly on races; instead, it'll be more of a "platform... to engage citizens as lobbyists," whatever that means.
One bit of good news in Dave Weigel's story, though, is the new project for Rick Weiland, the SD-Sen candidate who was one of Mayday's main beneficiaries. Weiland will be leading Takeitback.org, which is oriented toward bypassing candidates altogether and focusing on helping "citizens in other states improve their governments with referenda on economics and congressional redistricting."
3:53 PM PT: IL-18: The Chicago Tribune has gotten three potential Republican special election contestants on the record, all of whom, as of Tuesday, were variations on "maybe." State Sen. Darin LaHood says he's been getting a lot of encouragement, but he'll have a "formal decision tomorrow" (i.e. Wednesday). State Sen. Bill Brady, better-known for surprisingly losing the 2010 gubernatorial race to Pat Quinn, says he is "very happy where I'm at, but I am not going to say no." And state Sen. Jason Barickman says he'll "consider" the race but wants to talk it over with the family first.
3:58 PM PT: FL-Sen: As for a Republican replacement for Rubio, don't look for Rep. Tom Rooney. He says he's not going to run in 2016, but he is interested in running in 2018, when incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson will be up again (though the septuagenarian Nelson is a retirement possibility). Rooney did tout his fellow GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis for the '16 race, though.